阿德莱德房产形势最新分析

wwwh

本文发表于南澳中文杂志《新人类》２００７年４月第１６期。
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根据澳洲统计局的最新统计数据显示，在过去的一年里，阿德莱的房价已经上涨了6.4％。南澳房地产学会REISA的有关报告也表明，阿德莱德当前的房屋中间价已经超过290,000元；而在5个月以前，该价位还仅为285,000元左右。南澳房地产协会会长马克•桑德森认为，尽管在这期间遇到了利率连续上调、百年不遇的旱灾和其它经济问题的影响等因素，南澳的房产还是获得了健康和稳定的增长。根据REISA的数据，整个南澳的房屋中间价在2006年上涨了5.88％，达到了270,000元。

比较全国其它城市，根据澳洲统计局的数据，去年增长最快的是佩斯，达到了惊人的36.9％，其次是达尔文，获得了出人意料的17.6％的增长速度。其它主要城市也有很快的增长：墨尔本8.1％，布里斯本7.1％，霍巴特7.1％。只有悉尼的房价略有下降，下降幅度也只有0.1％。这也与某些悲观人士认为全国房价将下跌20％的担心形成了鲜明的对比，澳洲房价在2006年实现了经济学家们预测的软着陆，并达到了8.3％的增长率。

从以上数据当中我们可以看到，相对于澳洲其它主要城市，阿德莱德的房价还处于较低的水平（如佩斯的房产中价位就已达到460,000元），增长并不算很快，房价上涨还有很大的空间。由于近几年来南澳的经济形势不断好转，移民政策较为优惠，南澳也成为整个澳洲最有潜力的地产市场之一。阿德莱德地方报纸The Advertiser报道，澳洲首富之一，亿万富翁，地产大亨朗•沃克Lang Walker已经开始在阿德莱德北部地区斥巨资开发地产项目。与很多业内人士的分析一样，他也认为阿德莱德将是下一个澳洲房价增长的亮点，南澳的地产繁荣已经不远。

关于阿德莱德未来的地产走势，本文主要讨论以下几个因素的影响：

1．        矿业的因素：

据相关报道，南澳的矿业发展迅猛，现有15个大型矿业项目亟待开发，其中就包括世界最大的露天共生铀矿――总投资为50亿元的奥林匹克大坝Olympic Dam扩建工程。另外，今年还有6个大的矿业项目将获得批准，有超过40家的矿业公司也将落户南澳。据专家预测，在未来的15至20年，南澳和北领地矿业的总额将超过西澳，而南澳的矿业也将在近20年里迫切需求近3万名技术工人的加入。

有资料显示，由于西澳近几年来的地产繁荣，不少当地的投资者抓住了机遇并获得很大收益。他们中的有识之士已经将目光转向南澳，并把大量资金投入到阿德莱德的房地产市场。这也表明西澳矿业和地产繁荣的余波已经波及到了南澳，在某种程度上也成为南澳的地产繁荣的动力之一。澳洲很多主流媒体包括The Advertiser等现在都认为，阿德莱德的房价迟早也会像佩斯和达尔文那样出现飞速上涨的情况。

2．        军事工业的因素：

在大力发展矿业的同时，南澳州政府还积极引进军事项目，如位于阿德莱德西部城区Port Adelaide的60亿元海军导弹驱逐舰Airfare Destroyer建造项目，以及位于北部Edingburgh Parks的空军和陆军科研项目等。据有关资料分析，国防项目将在未来的10年里为南澳再创造16,000至28,000个新的工作机会。另据报道，现有一支新组建的机械化营，共计1,200多名官兵将于今年调来南澳，并驻扎在靠近伊丽莎白地区Elizabeth的Edingburgh Parks。军队住房机构The Defence Housing Authority（简称DHA）现正急迫地为这些官兵和眷属在军营附近和周边地区寻找房源。可以想见，南澳军事工业的发展和繁荣，也将会为南澳的经济振兴增添活力，间接上也会促进军工项目附近的地产发展。


3．        租房市场的因素：

根据南澳房产学会REISA的报告，阿德莱德城区的空房率在今年的前两个月里一直都低于1％，而有些地区如Adelaide Hills甚至达到了无房可租的地步。为了能租上房子，有些房客不惜竞相加价，从而造成房租不断上涨。为了保证租房市场的稳定，REISA最近制定了新的行业规范，禁止某些中介利用现在的形势牟取暴利。

房租的上涨使得不少投资者看到房产市场利好的一面，并积极进入地产投资。另一方面，根据专家的预测，随着股票与证券市场增长的放缓，不少投于该市场的资金也将逐渐转向房产投资，而阿德莱德正是他们理想之地。

4．        移民的因素：

根据The Advertiser的报道，去年阿德莱德共吸引海外移民超过万人。其中投资移民就达到了604人，共有大概200个家庭来到南澳居住，占全国投资移民总数的14％。而在2002年度，仅有93个投资移民来到南澳，占全国总数的1.7％。据了解不少移民，尤其是投资移民来到南澳做的头几件事里就有买房置地。另一方面，在大力发展矿业和军工项目的同时，南澳州政府也积极引进高科技项目，如在阿德莱德北部地区就有一总投资5000万元的高科技园The Playford Evolution正开工建设，据报道有超过20家高科技企业将在那里投资建厂。所有这一切都将会给南澳增加更多的就业机会，使得其它州的技术人才迁移到南澳，从而增加州际间人口的流动。海外和州际移民数量的增加，也会进一步加剧了阿德莱德房产的紧张趋势，成为南澳房产价格上涨的因素之一。

从以上分析我们不难看出，阿德莱德房地产市场的增长趋势已经非常明显。据有关专家判断，阿德莱德的房价于近期内可能还并不会出现高速上扬的情况。这对于投资者和自住房购买者来说可能会是一个好消息，因为他们正好可以利用这段时间做积极准备，迎接下一个地产增长高峰的来临。

hunt_easter

别涨了，现在这价都买不起

raymond.k

先缓一缓,等俺买了房再涨不迟?

dengba

LZ,could you analyze the house market in Canberra please?

wwwh

谁都不希望涨价，但是现实告诉我们涨与不涨，都不是由我们的主观意志决定的。

问题的关键是我们是否能够利用当前的形势，做到未雨绸缪，才不会在未来追悔莫及！

关键时刻，该出手时就出手！

小马过河

分析房地产走势的人好像从来没听说谁在说房子会跌，南澳时报上也都在期期说ad的房子在疯长，快买房子吧。——卖房子的当然希望房子涨好，买房子的就希望房价还是低点好。听朋友说，下半年有可能房子会跌，因为换届的说，你信哪家？

wwwh

The Advertiser期期也在说房价在涨，信与不信在于你自己；涨与不涨却不由得您的喜好来决定。

当年岳父母由于搬迁得到了５万元补偿，自己又添了一些钱买了一幢房子，当时大概每平方米１０００元，几个月后就上涨到了１２００元，现在已经是２０００元左右。当时和他们一起的邻居觉得房价涨得太快了，不可能在涨了，想等着房价降一降再买，结果错过了时机，现在那５万元连三分之一的房子都买不起了。这是９０年代发生在中国一个中等城市的故事，相信很多人都经历过。

今天的The Advertiser一篇文章《Overseas--Driven Housing Boom》大家可以看一看，房子还是要涨的，信不信由你！

chxq89

有道理。人口增长是房价增长的直接因素。

wwwh

本文的所有素材和数据都来自南澳地方报纸The　Advertiser和Messenger，以及南澳房产学会和澳洲统计局。

今年开始，南澳主流媒体现在都在说Housing　Boom，连一向比较保守的华文报纸《南澳时报》也开始对房产变得比较乐观。另外的迹象是现在的现在很多房产投资讲座也开始关注阿德莱德的市场和消费者。商人的嗅觉是很灵的，如果没有利益，他们绝对不会关心阿德莱德的。

wwwh

这么辛苦收集资料和写作，自己顶以下。

919

虽然都在涨，但是国内和澳洲两个市场不一样。国内是政府主导，老大让涨能不涨吗，房产商替政府盖房而已。澳洲的市场早已经过了投机期了，你去问问，这边“售楼人员”收入算不算高，我以前问过日本人，对北京售楼的收入之高感到奇怪，其实那些人工资不高，全靠提成，这都能拿那么高就很可怕了。所以国内你就买吧，反正政府不让跌，至少在可见未来是这样。澳洲可就不同了，人口流动是自由的，地方大得很，你涨多了我就不住了，悉尼目前已有这一迹象了。人口自然增长又很缓慢，即使来了不少老中，充其量也没多少，要知道阿德的计划是2050年到150万。重要的是这一市场已经经过了多少年的风雨，不可能再出现暴涨暴跌了。发达国家中也就日本在泡沫经济的刺激下出现过这种情况，那是一个人多地少的均富国家，涨上去就得跌下来，因为大家收入都差不多，不可能让这个老行业暴富。话说回来，我不是不同意阿德的房子会涨，只是中文媒体又把从台湾传到香港再传到大陆那一套地产推销手段用上了，难免会误导我们这些在国内看惯了整版卖房广告的人。阿德的房子以前比较低，近期国内有钱人来的又多，肯定会涨一段时间，这又是一个老人不少的城市，很多人要卖房，所以也不会涨到哪里去，就看买卖双方的博弈了。

wwwh

原帖由 919 于 17-4-2007 21:18 发表
虽然都在涨，但是国内和澳洲两个市场不一样。国内是政府主导，老大让涨能不涨吗，房产商替政府盖房而已。澳洲的市场早已经过了投机期了，你去问问，这边“售楼人员”收入算不算高，我以前问过日本人，对北京售楼 ...

任何说法都要根据，关于房价涨与不涨是有事实说话的。这位人士估计不在Adelaide或是AU，类似的说法才是从台湾、香港、澳门传来的传言而已。

本人的文章的主要根据是Adelaide地方主要报纸《The Advertiser》、澳大利亚统计局和南澳房地产学会的资料和数据。如果根据几个国人的预见，就下结论，是不是可笑。

现将《The Advertiser》的文章与大家分享，至于您信哪个，取决于您自己。

Property prices tipped to soar

By Rhiannon Hoyle

www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,21574787-37037,00.html

April 18, 2007 02:45am
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THE rich will get even richer this year as the nation approaches another massive property boom, a property expert has tipped.

Michael Yardney - who runs buyers' advocacy service Metropole Property Investment Strategists - says that despite the record low in affordability, there was no doubt the great divide would keep growing, with the more affluent suburbs set to be the strongest performers in 2007.

"I think, looking at the stage of the cycle we are in in SA, this is a year where the rich are going to get richer," Mr Yardney said.

He said Australia was on the cusp of one last momentous real estate boom caused by strong immigration, a lack of land and an increasing proportion of single-person households. As the price climb continued, home ownership levels would also continue to fall, he said.

The Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute has predicted that by 2011, the number of renters across the country will have risen 12 per cent, to 40 per cent of the population.

"Now that is just an amazing figure," Mr Yardney said. The property commentator predicts Adelaide's median house price will be $13.5 million in less than 40 years.

Recent State Government figures peg Adelaide's median house price at $300,000, up from $110,000 in 1996.

He said while such a rise seemed unimaginable, he pointed to countries like the United Kingdom, where house prices were beyond the reach of average people.

[ 本帖最后由 wwwh 于 20-4-2007 18:18 编辑 ]

wwwh

Investors pile into property

April 11, 2007 11:50am

MORE Australians took out a housing loan in February than in the previous month, indicating last year's interest rate rises have done little to curb borrowing, raising the chance of rate hike.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics housing finance report for February released today showed loan commitments for owner occupied housing rose by 0.3 per cent in February, seasonally adjusted, to 62,369.

Total housing finance by value rose 3.3 per cent in February, seasonally adjusted, to $20.852 billion.

The report continues a long run of upbeat data suggesting the central bank may be forced to lift interest rates again to dampen inflation pressures, possibly as early as next month.

The number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments fell from 17.7 per cent in January 2007 to 17.5 per cent in February 2007.

The number of fixed-rate loan commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments dipped 20.5 per cent in January 2007 to 20.4 per cent in February 2007.

Investors lured back

Rising rental yields tempted investors back into the property market.

ANZ head of financial system analysis Paul Braddick said lending to investors drove the firm result for February.

"The number was quite strong, driven by another surge in investor housing loans, and that's consistent with our expectations that investors will be pulled back into the market this year by the dramatic tightening of rental vacancies that we're seeing across most capital cities," he said.

"This is driving rents significantly higher, and therefore improving investor yields."

Investor finance accounted for 8.9 per cent of the total value of loans at $6.594 billion, seasonally adjusted.

However, the value of housing finance for owner occupied housing rose at a much softer pace of 0.9 per cent to $14.257 billion.

Mr Braddick said the owner occupier market was most likely still being impacted my the three interest rate rises in 2006 as well as expectations of more rate rises to come.


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[ 本帖最后由 wwwh 于 20-4-2007 17:51 编辑 ]

wwwh

澳大利亚未来的趋势也会像欧洲和美国一样，自住房的比例越来越少，租房的人会越来越多。

在澳大利亚还没有成为美国和欧洲的时候，大家是要做些准备的！！

wwwh

House prices resilient

- surveyBy Nicki Bourlioufas
April 17, 2007 12:28pm

AUSTRALIANS are largely confident that their properties have retained their value over the past year despite rising interest rates and the proportion of people believe their house has lost value has diminished, a survey has revealed.

A survey by NEWS.com.au and Coredata conducted from March 22 to 29 has found almost two in three Australians, or 60 per cent, thought the value of their home had been maintained over the past 12 months.

Just 27 per cent of respondents thought their property had fallen in value, down from 34 per cent in a December survey.

But of those who had seen the value of their property decline, 28 per cent said they held 'negative equity', or that their mortgage was worth more than their home.

That equated to 9 per cent of all borrowers surveyed.

Of those who said their home's value had fallen, 55 per cent said it had reduced their financial security.

Rates on the rise
The central bank raised interest rates three times last year, which kept home prices down in 2006.

Some analysts are forecasting the Reserve Bank of Australia will again raise rates in May.

As interest rates rise, bank repossessions of properties are rising around Australia, particularly in the outer suburban areas of Sydney and Melbourne, as some people fall behind on mortgage repayments.

People who bought at the peak of the property boom in 2003 are also suffering with higher interest rates.

Some real estate analysts expect repossessions to rise over coming months as the rate rises of late last year feed through the financial system and property markets.

House prices gain

According to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, house prices across the nation rose 8.3 per cent over the 12 months to December 2006.

House prices rose in all cities, except Sydney, where they fell a modest 0.1 per cent.

Annually, house prices rose in Perth (up 36.9 per cent), Darwin (up 17.6 per cent), Canberra (up 9.2 per cent), Melbourne (up 8.1 per cent), Brisbane (up 7.1 per cent), Hobart (up 7.1 per cent) and Adelaide (up 6.4 per cent), and fell slightly in Sydney.

Most analysts are tipping modest growth in house prices over the year to come, with higher interest rates capping capital gains in all cities.

[ 本帖最后由 wwwh 于 20-4-2007 18:01 编辑 ]

wwwh

Prices must fall or rates go up

By David Uren
April 12, 2007 12:00am

INTEREST rates will have to rise further if the dip in inflation late last year is not sustained, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

In its twice-yearly global economic outlook, the IMF has sliced Australia's growth prospects but held its forecast that the world economy will grow by 4.9 per cent this year and next.

The onset of drought is expected to result in Australian economic growth of only 2.6 per cent this year, compared with an estimated 3.5 per cent made in September last year. The IMF expects growth to recover to 3.3 per cent next year.

The IMF says there is less chance of a world slump now than there was six months ago, because some of the heat has come out of the oil market and inflation has fallen in most nations.

All eyes on inflation
However, the IMF expects inflation in Australia to remain perilously close to the top of the Reserve Bank's target 2-3 per cent band throughout next year.

Inflation should drop from the oil-pressured 3.5 per cent last year to 2.8 per cent this year but lift to 2.9 per cent next year.

"If inflation does not decline as expected, central banks may still need to tighten monetary policy further,'' the IMF said.

The IMF's major concern on inflation was that there could be another oil-price spiral. It noted that options markets put the chance of the oil price rising from its present level of about $US60 a barrel to $US88 a barrel by the end of the year as one in six.

First-quarter inflation data will be released on April 24 and analysts say the data wil be key to the RBA's next move on interest rates.

The IMF's view that the world economy is likely to ride out the slowdown in US housing markets is likely to influence the Reserve Bank's view on inflation.

Housing rebound

New Australian housing-finance figures show that surging demand for investment housing pushed the total value of housing loans in February up by 3.3 per cent to a record $20.9 billion.

Loans to investors soared by 8.9 per cent to $6.6 billion, only slightly below the level at the peak of the housing boom in 2003.

The growth in housing credit adds to a number of indicators that growth may be more rapid than the IMF or the Reserve Bank has been predicting, including in business confidence and retail sales.

[ 本帖最后由 wwwh 于 20-4-2007 18:15 编辑 ]

harrrrrrrry

不知道次贷危机影响未来房价不？

steven_sa

估计是跑不掉。

退休养老的人

我在国内也从事相关金融和房产的工作，来南澳2年多拉，自打来了以后因为想买房一直在关注这里的房市，就我的这个2年对阿德房价的追踪，我个人认为自2008年10月以来阿德的房价是跌了，但是跌的是80万以上的豪宅，30万-40万左右的房子因为政府的那个优惠政策不仅没有跌，还有小幅增长，所以就算有金融危机等因素的影响，我觉得对于大多数移民来说想买的在预算范围内的房子是不会跌的，要跌的一定是豪宅，估计这类的房子还有10%-15%的下跌空间。

jojogege

估计近期不会太涨

steven_sa

再等一年半载，多存点钱付首付。

教兽

居然还有人忽悠房价会涨？澳洲的危机还没开始呢

steven_sa

这是一年多前的帖子让我给翻起来了，呵呵

道济

涨，一定会涨，100万一栋比较合理。
如果有人买

ADAD

房托啊。..

ddll

供求哪个大呀？

popeye

原帖由 退休养老的人 于 2-1-2009 11:56 发表

                               
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我在国内也从事相关金融和房产的工作，来南澳2年多拉，自打来了以后因为想买房一直在关注这里的房市，就我的这个2年对阿德房价的追踪，我个人认为自2008年10月以来阿德的房价是跌了，但是跌的是80万以上的豪宅，30万 ...

根据目前的数据，这个预测是准确的.

naughtybaby

赞同

naughtybaby

目前全澳跌的最厉害的中心城市是perth, 但主打还是毫宅. 30万左右的反而涨.